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NFL Situation Spotlight - #46: Teams with a high Pass Defense Rating

If someone where to ask me: "Is their one effort-especially in regards to rushing
particular NFL statistic that you would yards against-create a situation that is
class as indispensable when working hard for even seasoned handicappers to
against the point spread"? It wouldn't lay off of. How can you not like a team
take me long to respond. The answer-Pass that appears to be impenetrable both in
Defense ratings, or PDE for short. the air and on the ground?
This may come as a surprise to those Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay have fallen
purists who believe that the NFL is built victim to this situation the most over
on the rushing game, but yes, how well a the past 13 seasons with Denver and
team defends against the pass is a huge Baltimore not far behind. This particular
predictor of future results and this trend is well distributed, however, as
article will explore how this stat can 93.8% of teams in the league have been
directly influence the mind-set and involved at one time or another since
subsequent betting actions of the '94.
'Average-Joe' bettor, under the right There are a handful of Secondary
circumstances. conditions that round out this situation.
The most effective way to measure the Teams looking to get even after a late
quality of a teams Pass Defense (as far field-goal beat them in a previous
as handicapping versus the point spread meeting are not included, as well as
is concerned) is by using Yards-per-Play games where the opponent is coming in off
averages, adjusted for the strength of a Straight-Up Dog win. The full details
Pass Offenses a team has faced during the are below.
season. (Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread
As an example: going into the last week Margin Rating. A positive rating
of the 2006 season, Chicago ranked 2nd in indicates a trend that is stronger than
the league with a PDE Rating of +0.75. average versus the line, negative-weaker
This was calculated by taking Chicago's than average. TDIS% is the percentage of
Yards-per-Pass play average on defense teams in the league that have been
(4.77) and subtracting it from how well involved in this situation at one time or
their pool of opponents passed the ball another. WT% is the percentage of teams
themselves (5.52 Yards-per-Pass play on that are .500 or better and SPR is the
offense). 5.52 - 4.77 = +0.75. It should average spread for teams in this
be noted that, whether I am calculating situation. For more details, please
an offensive rating, or defensive-a consult Page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game
positive number always indicates a team Sheets Guide.)
that is better than average, while a Situational Trend #46 Summary (Last
negative rating indicates a team that is Updated: Jan 15th, 2008)
performing below average in the category Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
we are looking at. 1) Pass Defense Rating (PDE) > +0.50.
Now that I have explained the math, what 2) Last game Rushing Yards Against (RYA)
are the potential uses for this stat? One < 75.
particular situation where PDE shows its 3) Last game Total Plays Against (TPA) <
predictive power is when the team in 60.
question has a PDE rating > +0.50 and is Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
coming off a game in which they shut down 1) Exclude Clutch FG Loss in Last Meeting
their opponents ground attack. (LM4).
The public loves to bet on teams with 2) Over Under (OU) < 44 in the Current
tough pass defenses and as a result, Game.
since 1994, teams with a PDE rating > 3) Opponent not off a SU Dog win.
+0.50 are a dismal 706-789 (47.2%) ATS. Situation Stats
This is the first Primary condition for ASMR: -0.9
this particular situation. The 2nd is Home%: 42.7
that our focus team is coming off a game Dog%: 32.7
in which they limited their opponent to TDIS%: 96.9
less than 75 rushing yards. After this WT%: 84.2
stipulation, the record now SPR: -2.63
becomes167-260 (39.1%) ATS which would Top Teams: PIT(20); TB(14); DEN(13);
have meant a profit of $7630 betting BAL(12)
against this team with $110 wagers at 10 Situation Records
11 odds. Overall (Since '94): 32-127 ATS
If we include another Primary condition 2007 Season: 3-10 ATS
that specifies our team in question also 2006 Season: 4-13 ATS
limited their last opponent to less than 2005 Season: 1-9 ATS
60 total offensive plays-we end up with a 2004 Season: 5-11 ATS
brutally effective situational trend that Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.
is 73-157 (31.7%) ATS since 1994. 2007 WK18-SD 17 TEN 6 (TEN +10) L
Teams with tough pass defenses that are 2007 WK18-SEA 35 WAS 14 (WAS +3.5) L
coming off a strong defensive 2007 WK17-TEN 16 IND 10 (IND +5.




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